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        YOUR DAILY DOSE OF SCIENCE                                                                                              7




















        WHY DIDN’T THE EARTHQUAKE IN


        RUSSIA TRIGGER A MASSIVE TSUNAMI?





     Tsunami warnings were    However, as of this writing,   In Kamchatka and   occurred to the trench—
     issued along the Pacific   many countries that were   surrounding areas, some   usually emerge one or two
     coasts, but the expected   in the path of potential   localized damage did   hours after the tsunami
     devastation did not occur.   destruction did not   occur. The eastern Russian   appears.
     Here’s the geological    experience the expected   city of Petropavlovsk-
     explanation for why.     wall of water. The waves   Kamchatsky was shaken   Modern tsunamis like
                              that reached Japan and   severely, with some      today’s are monitored
     The 8.8-magnitude        Hawaii slightly exceeded   buildings sustaining   in real-time using deep-
     earthquake that struck   1.2 meters, prompting    damage. In Severo-Kurilsk,   ocean pressure sensors.
     off the coast of Russia’s   authorities to downgrade   a town in the Kuril Islands   Still, Melgar notes that
     Kamchatka Peninsula      tsunami alerts and cancel   just south of Kamchatka,   “the sensor network is
     sparked deep concern     some evacuation orders.   tsunami waves reached up   sparse, so it doesn’t always
     among scientists. This   A tourist in Hawaii told the   to five meters, damaging   capture the full complexity
     region, located at a     BBC, “The disaster we were   homes and sections of the   of wave energy moving
     convergence where the    expecting didn’t happen.”   port.                 across the basin.”
     Pacific plate subducts   In California, water levels
     beneath a branch of      rose to about 2.5 meters,   Each country has slightly   The final height of a
     the North American       but no significant damage   different procedures for   tsunami as it reaches the
     plate and lies close to   was reported.           issuing tsunami warnings.   shore is also affected
     the Eurasian plate, is                            Generally, however, if a   by the shape and depth
     known for its potential   Why didn’t this massive   dangerous tsunami is   of the seafloor (known
     to generate widespread   undersea earthquake      anticipated, evacuation   as bathymetry), as
     and destructive tsunamis.   produce a larger tsunami?  orders are given for   well as the coastline’s
     In fact, a 9.0-magnitude                          affected coastal regions.   geography. Stephen Hicks,
     earthquake in 1952 wiped   The short answer: the   Initial predictions often   a seismologist at University   Geological Survey, a 9.1
     out a nearby Russian town   fault that ruptured during   include wave height   College London, says,   quake releases nearly
     and caused major damage   the earthquake produced   estimates, but these early   “Geographic features like   three times more energy
     in Hawaii.               exactly the tsunami it was   figures are subject to   bays can amplify wave   than an 8.8.
                              capable of generating.   uncertainty.             heights, while waves can
     At 11:24 a.m. local time   While our instincts may                         also be diffracted around   Judith Hubbard, an
     on Wednesday (7:24 p.m.   have led us to expect more   Independent earthquake   islands.”           earthquake expert at
     EDT on Tuesday), when the   destruction, the resulting   scientist Amilcar Carrera-                 Cornell University, explains:
     seafloor off Kamchatka   tsunami matched the      Cevallos explains that   Today’s earthquake might   “The 2004 and 2011 events
     suddenly shifted, it seemed   geophysical potential of   “tsunami energy does   naturally be compared to   were significantly larger
     likely that a dangerous   the fault.              not radiate symmetrically   the 2011 magnitude 9.1   than this one.” As a result,
     tsunami was on its way.                           across the ocean.” Faults   quake off Japan, which   they were much more
     Scientists predicted that   According to Diego    don’t break in neat,     produced 130-foot-high   capable of displacing vast
     many countries around    Melgar, an earthquake    linear lines, and seafloor   waves and claimed over   volumes of ocean water.
     the Pacific Rim would be   and tsunami expert at the   movements aren’t always   15,000 lives. The 2004
     affected. Millions of people   University of Oregon, “The   smooth or unidirectional.   magnitude 9.1 quake   Still, not knowing the
     were evacuated from      very fact that a tsunami   This leads to variations   and tsunami in the Indian   exact wave height at
     coastal areas of Japan,   warning was issued is a   in wave intensity across   Ocean, which killed more   every Pacific coastline in
     and residents in Hawaii   success story in itself.” A   different regions.  than 280,000 people, also   advance is a secondary
     were instructed to move   tsunami doesn’t need to                          comes to mind.           concern. What truly
     to higher ground. Similar   consist of towering waves   Diego Melgar adds, “Initial                 matters is that tsunami
     warnings were issued in   to cause devastation; even   warnings are based solely   However, today’s   warnings were issued
     Central and South America.   relatively modest waves   on the estimated size and   8.8-magnitude quake   quickly and that people
     As the first small tsunami   can easily sweep away   location of the quake,   may not be as powerful   were told when to expect
     wave appeared off Japan’s   people and structures. The   but that’s not enough to   as it seems. Earthquake   waves at their location.
     Hokkaido island, there   fact that casualties have   determine how much water   magnitude is not measured   As Hubbard notes, “The
     were fears that waves    remained low is largely due   is displaced or where the   on a linear scale; each   current strategy of
     could reach up to three   to effective warnings and   waves will concentrate.”   increase in magnitude   preventative evacuation
     meters in height.        timely evacuations.      More detailed insights—  represents a dramatic    does a great job at saving
                                                       such as the extent of    rise in energy release.   lives.”
                                                       fault slip and how close it   According to the U.S.
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